Almost every pokies player has felt the pull. A session goes badly, the balance drops below where it started and a voice suggests that a few more spins, or slightly bigger bets, will bring it back. Chasing losses is one of the most common patterns in gambling and one of the most expensive. Understanding the maths behind it is one of the most effective ways to resist it.
Resources like https://thepokies-aud.co explain the house edge and RTP of individual games, and those numbers are exactly what make chasing losses so costly. This article explains why chasing usually deepens losses, how bet escalation increases risk and what practical steps help break the cycle.
What Chasing Losses Looks Like
Chasing losses can take several forms. Some players keep playing beyond their planned limit. Others increase their bet size in the hope of recovering faster. Some deposit more money, switch to higher-volatility games or return the next day specifically to win back the previous session’s losses.
All of these behaviours share one assumption: that the next spins are more likely to be winners because of what has already happened. In a random game, that assumption is false.
The House Edge Never Takes a Break
Every pokie has a house edge, the difference between 100% and its RTP. On a game with a 96% RTP, the average cost of each dollar wagered is four cents. That cost applies to every spin, including spins played while trying to recover losses.
This means that every additional dollar wagered while chasing adds to the expected loss. Chasing does not change the odds; it only increases the amount exposed to them.
| Additional amount wagered while chasing | House edge | Average additional cost |
|---|---|---|
| $100 | 4% | $4 |
| $500 | 4% | $20 |
| $1,000 | 4% | $40 |
| $2,000 | 6% | $120 |
| $5,000 | 6% | $300 |
These are averages. In practice, the swings around them can be large, which is what makes chasing feel worthwhile in the moment.
Why Bigger Bets Make It Worse
Raising bets to recover losses faster increases both the expected cost and the speed at which a balance can disappear. A player who doubles their bet after losing also doubles the expected cost per spin and doubles the size of potential losses. On a volatile game, this can drain the remaining budget within minutes.
Systems that rely on raising bets after losses, sometimes promoted as ways to guarantee recovery, are particularly dangerous. They assume an unlimited budget and no maximum bet, neither of which exists in reality. A long losing streak, which is a normal part of random play, can make the required bets impossibly large.
The Psychology Behind the Pull
Several well-known biases feed the urge to chase:
- The gambler’s fallacy: believing a win is “due” after a run of losses
- Loss aversion: losses feel more painful than equivalent gains feel good
- Sunk cost thinking: feeling that money already spent justifies spending more
- Near misses: outcomes that look close to a win make recovery seem near
- Emotional arousal: frustration and stress reduce careful decision-making
Recognising these influences does not make them disappear, but it makes them easier to notice before they drive decisions.
Why Recovery Feels Possible
Occasionally, chasing does work in the short term. A big win arrives and the balance recovers. These episodes are memorable and reinforce the belief that chasing is a valid strategy. What is less memorable are the many sessions in which chasing simply made the loss larger. Over time, the expected cost always wins out.
Practical Ways to Stop Chasing
The most effective defences are decided in advance, when you are calm:
- Set a loss limit before every session and treat it as final
- Use deposit limits so additional funds are not instantly available
- Never increase your bet size in response to losses
- Take a break of at least a day after a losing session
- Avoid playing when stressed, tired or after drinking
Writing down the result of each session also helps. Seeing losses recorded plainly makes it easier to accept them rather than trying to erase them.
Reframing Losses
A helpful mental shift is to treat money spent on pokies as the cost of entertainment, decided before you start. If you set aside $50 for a session, losing it means the entertainment cost $50, in the same way a concert ticket costs money whether or not you enjoy the show. Viewed this way, there is nothing to “win back”, only a decision about whether to spend more on further entertainment.
When Chasing Becomes a Concern
Frequent chasing can be an early sign that gambling is becoming harder to control. If you regularly exceed your limits, borrow money to gamble or feel compelled to recover losses, it is worth seeking support. Talking to someone early can prevent a pattern from becoming more serious.
A Worked Example
Imagine a player who sets a $100 budget and loses $60 in the first half hour. Following the plan, they would continue with the remaining $40 or stop. Chasing instead, they deposit another $100 and double their stake to “get back to even” faster. Their total exposure has now doubled, the expected cost of every spin has doubled and the remaining budget can disappear in a fraction of the time. Even if a win arrives, it is far from certain to restore the original balance, and the most likely outcome is a larger loss than the one they were trying to recover.
Final Thoughts
The maths of chasing losses is simple: every additional bet carries the same house edge, and bigger bets only increase the cost and the risk. Understanding this, recognising the psychological pull and setting firm limits in advance are the best ways to protect yourself. Free, confidential support is available 24/7 through Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858.
admin003